The report defines “state capture” as a systemic form of corruption whereby narrow interest groups take control of the institutions and processes through which public policy is made, directing it towards their own interests. The authors identify three main manifestations of such capture:

• influence over the formation of constitutional, legal and policy rules, including executive dominance, the influence of the military, weak regulation of political finance and manipulation of the rules in strategic economic sectors;
• control over the implementation of public policy through politicised appointments, control over state-owned enterprises, manipulation of procurement procedures, export rules and price controls;
• the weakening of accountability institutions, including courts, anti-corruption bodies, civil society and independent media.

Mass protests by Gen-Z in Madagascar in September–October 2025 resulted from accumulated discontent over chronic disruptions in basic services, rising prices, the lack of prospects for young people, shrinking civic space and the loss of trust in political institutions. As a result of the protests, President Andry Rajoelina fell from power, and control of the country passed to a transitional military government headed by Colonel Michael Randrianirina.

According to the researchers, these events created a rare “window of opportunity” for reform in Madagascar. However, it may be quickly lost if former corruption networks adapt to the new conditions and retain control over key political and economic processes.

The key risk of the transition period, in the authors’ view, is that civic mobilisation does not in itself create an architecture for reform. After the fall of the previous regime, the process may be captured by actors formed within the very system against which the protesters mobilised.

As possible areas for real change, GI ACE experts identify reducing executive dominance, ensuring a transparent national dialogue, depoliticising the management of state-owned enterprises, reforming the civil service, strengthening the independence of accountability institutions and protecting civic space.

Thus, drawing on the case of Madagascar, the researchers conclude that the main challenge for a country affected by state capture is not simply a change of political figures, but breaking the entrenched cycle in which state institutions, resources and accountability mechanisms are subordinated to the interests of a narrow circle of political and economic actors. To achieve this, it is necessary to bring together the public legitimacy of the protest movement, the expertise of reformers and real institutional leverage.